未来10年，可能上涨8倍的房地产信托基金：SRG(4)
根据上图可以计算出，如果以市场正常价格出售这些地产，大约能获得42亿美金。
目前SRG有11.6亿美金的债务。根据这些债务和资产价值，大致可以得出SRG的净资产价值。
因此，SRG的清算价值大约是55.4美金。当然这个数字不可能是精确的，但是模糊的正确要远远比精确的错误重要多了。
一般来讲，公司清算时即耗时，又耗钱，所以应该在清算价格上再打个7折，这样就反映了安全边际。
这样计算下来的真实清算价值大概是38.8美金。换句话说，低于38.8美金买入，基本上是保本的，同时价格越低，风险越低，收益越高，安全边际越高。
? 第二部分：巴伦周刊的分析
In the past year, Sears shares (ticker: SHLD) have tumbled nearly 50%, to a recent $8.06, as business trends have worsened, and a turnaround seems remote. One seeming casualty of Sears’ misfortune is Seritage Growth Properties (SRG), a real estate investment trust spun off from Sears in July 2015, which owns 235 properties, mostly Sears and Kmart stores, and partial stakes in 31 other properties—42 million square feet in all. Sears is its largest tenant, responsible for 79.5% of the REIT’s rental income in 2016.
在过去一年，西尔斯百货的股价下跌了50%，因为公司的基本面更加恶化同时转型遥遥无期。而西尔斯百货的不幸造成了Seritage Growth Properties（以下简称SRG）“意外受伤”，SRG是2015年7月从西尔斯百货拆分出来的房地产信托基金，目前SRG拥有235个商业地产，主要是西尔斯和Kmart的店铺和31个其他商业地产，总面积是4200万英尺。目前，SRG最大的租户是西尔斯百货，西尔斯百货在2016年时依旧占SRG租金收入的79.5%。
Concerns about a potential Sears bankruptcy filing have attracted short sellers to Seritage. If Sears reneges on terms of its master lease and stops paying rent, Seritage might find itself temporarily short of income, which would hammer its stock. The stock, at a recent $43, is off about 15% in the past year.
由于担心西尔斯的破产，SRG吸引了很多做空者。如果西尔斯违约和SRG之间的租赁合同并停止支付利息，那么SRG将会发现自己短时间之内没有现金流了，这将会给股票带来打击。现在SRG的股价是44美金，比去年高点时跌了15%。
Yet, despite today’s risks and skepticism, Seritage is likely to offer an opportunity for significant long-term growth that could lift its equity value more than eightfold in the next decade. The REIT is redeveloping and re-leasing its properties to new tenants, including Whole Foods Market (WFM), Primark, and Cinemark Holdings (CNK), which are paying as much as $18 a square foot in rent, far above the $4 Sears pays under its master lease. As Seritage re-leases space, its reliance on Sears will diminish, and the average rent per square foot will rise.
尽管如今面临的风险和怀疑，SRG依旧可以提供一个非常好的投资机会，很可能在接下来的10年里提供8倍左右的投资回报。SRG正在重建和重新租赁它的资产给主要的用户，包括全食超市、Primark和Cine Mark Holding等，这些租客正在支付每平方英尺18美金的价格，远远超过西尔斯支付的4美金。因为SRG正在重新租赁出去它旗下的资产，因此它对西尔斯的依赖会逐渐降低，平均每平方英尺的房租会提高。
If Sears doesn’t file for bankruptcy protection in the next three years or so, the danger to Seritage probably will pass. But even if a Sears filing occurs in the near term, Seritage should be able to ride out the crisis and build long-term equity value.
如果西尔斯在3年之内没有破产，那么西尔斯将不会对SRG造成任何影响。即使短期之内西尔斯破产，那么SRG应该也可以安全度过危机，同时构建长期的股东价值。
Manhattan-based Seritage has a roster of big-name investors. Lampert, 54, controls 3.8% of the A shares and all of the B shares through ESL Investments, giving him 8.5% of the voting power. Bruce Berkowitz’s Fairholme Capital, a longtime Sears holder, owns 12% of the A shares.
总部位于曼哈顿的SRG有一个非常有名的投资者：54岁的Lambpert控制着3.8%的A股，同时通过ESL控制着全部的B股，给他8.5%的投票权。与此同时，Bruce Berkowitz’s Fairholme capital持有12%的A股。
Warren Buffett, who heads Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), bought two million Seritage A shares, or a 7% stake, at the end of 2015 with his own money. The shares were around $35 at the time.
沃伦巴菲特，伯克希尔哈撒韦的主席，在2015年年底用自己的钱购买了200万股的SRG（约占SRG7%的股份）。购买价格在35美金附近。
Mohnish Pabrai, managing partner of Pabrai Investment Funds, purchased Seritage shares for his funds about a year ago, but told Barron’s that he recently sold all of the stock. He says he has been surprised by the speed of the deterioration at Sears.
Mohnish Pabrai，管理着Pabrai 投资基金，一年前也购买了SRG，但是Pabrai最近告诉巴伦周刊，他已经卖掉了全部的SRG股票。他觉得西尔斯衰落的速度超出了它的想象。
“I had first thought Sears would survive three or four years; now that might not be possible,” says Pabrai. In the event that Sears declares bankruptcy, he sees a high probability that the company will have a Chapter 7 filing, seeking to liquidate.
Pabrai认为，我最开始认为西尔斯会再活个3年或者4年，但是现在看来不可能了。如果西尔斯破产，那么他看认为西尔斯有很大的概率会填写Chapter 7的文件来清算资产。
“If Sears doesn’t file until 2020, Seritage is fine,” he says. “It is possible they are fine if there is a late-2019 filing. Any filing before that means taking extraordinary measures.”
如果西尔斯在2020年前部破产，那么SRG是没问题的。如果是2019年年底平破产，SRG应该问题也不大。任何在此之前的破产都意味着特殊性。
Those could include raising capital, which might dilute current holders. Pabrai, who says his decision to sell Seritage was also motivated by a desire to invest in new ideas, estimates the REIT’s equity could be worth $12.6 billion in 10 years, compared with $1.5 billion last week, if it redevelops its square footage in that span. His 10-year estimate assumes a 6% cap rate—a rate of return on real estate value—and that Seritage takes on $4 billion in debt for redevelopment purposes.
这意味着SRG可能会需要融资，这会稀释掉现有的股东。Pabrai卖掉SRG主要是因为他有了新的投资标的，即使如此，Pabrai预计SRG的市值在10年后将会达到126亿美金，而如今SRG市值只有17亿美金。Pabrai假设10年后的cap rate是6%，同时SRG要背负40亿美金的债务来重建资产组合。
He notes that with its robust cash flows, Seritage could buy and redevelop Sears properties it doesn’t already own. That would further increase the value of its equity.
Pabrai指出，由于充足的现金流，SRG可以买回并且重建西尔斯手里那些SRG没有拥有的资产。这将会进一步增加SRG的股东价值。
Even with a Sears filing, he says, “Seritage will survive.” He adds, “I might get a chance to take another bite of the apple.”
即使西尔斯破产了，SRG也会存活。Pabrai认为他还会有机会再次买入SRG。
SERITAGE BOUGHT its properties from Sears in a sale-and-leaseback transaction in the summer of 2015. Its properties are situated in good locations in major U.S. markets in 49 states. Half are located in regional malls.
在2015年夏天，SRG利用出售后回租的合同形式从西尔斯手里买了很多优质地产。SRG的资产组合分布美国49个州，同时地产的位置都非常好，其中有一半是在地区购物中心。
The retailer also can terminate leases. If it chooses to do so, it pays Seritage one year of rent and tenant reimbursements. The master lease runs for eight more years, after which a renewal option kicks in. Under the terms, Seritage can reclaim from Sears up to 50% of the space over time.
西尔斯可以终止和SRG之间的租赁合同。如果这么做的话，西尔斯需要支付SRG一年的合同和租客返还。这个主租赁合同有效期是8年，8年后新的续订条约会补充进来。在现有的条约下，SRG可以最多收回50%西尔斯正在运营的商业地产并再租给别人。
In 2016, Seritage generated funds from operations of $107 million, or $1.92 a share, on $249 million in revenue. RBC Capital Markets analyst Wes Golladay expects property revenue to be flat this year at $250 million, but to jump 17% in 2018, reflecting higher-priced leases.
在2016年，SRG的经营性现金流（FFO）是1.07亿美金，或者是1.92美金每股，收入是2.49亿美金。RBC capital Markets的分析师Wes Golladay认为今年SRG的收入将会保持在2.5亿美金，但是2018年将会提高17%，主要是因为更高价格的租金。
Seritage has been making solid progress. It signed 2.1 million square feet to new tenants in 2016. That lowers Sears’ share of rental income to 64% on an annualized basis, including signed but not occupied leases.
SRG的改造计划目前已经有了很不错的进展。在2016年，SRG已经为210万英尺的地产的地产找到了新租客。这把西尔斯占总租金收入的比例下调到了64%，这个数字包括那些签了合同但是还没搬进去的租户。
Golladay forecasts that Sears’ share of rental income will fall to 51% in 2018. He says that by early 2019, Seritage will be in the clear from any risk from Sears. Golladay carries a $48 price target on the stock.
Golladay预测西尔斯占SRG租金收入的比例在2018年时将会下降为51%。他认为最早到2019年，SRG将会完全免疫西尔斯破产的风险。Golladay给SRG48块钱的目标价位。
OPERATING RESULTS at Sears have been dismal. Revenue fell 12% last year to $22 billion, reflecting a 7.4% drop in sales at stores open at least a year. The retailer generated negative $1.5 billion in free cash flow.
西尔斯百货的运营结果让人失望。2016年利润继续下滑12%，同店销售下降7.4%。2016年西尔斯百货消耗掉了15美金的现金。
Only three Wall Street analysts cover Sears. Greg Melich wrote of the company in a March note that “operating as a retailer will continue to result in large cash operating losses, and liquidity remains driven by asset sales.” Melich looks for an 18% revenue decline this year, and $1.1 billion in negative free cash flow.
目前只有3个华尔街分析师覆盖西尔斯百货。Greg Melich在3分月认为西尔斯百货将会持续遭受经营性损失，导致大量现金流流出，公司的流动性主要还是来自于资产的销售。Melich认为今年西尔斯百货的利润将会下滑18%，导致11亿美金的现金流出（11亿美金负的自由现金流）。
Sears has shrunk its business by slashing costs and closing stores. Last year, it sold its Craftsman brand to Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) for $525 million. This year, management plans to sell at least $1 billion in real estate and cut $1.25 billion in costs.
西尔斯通过削减开支和关闭店铺来收缩自己的业务。去年，西尔斯把旗下的Craftsman品牌以5.25亿美金出售给了SWK。今年，西尔斯百货打算出售10亿美金的商业地产，同时降低12.5亿美金的成本。
Sears’ liabilities are hefty, with net debt of $3.9 billion and underfunded pension liabilities of $1.75 billion. In its annual filing, the company warned about its ability to continue as a “going concern”.
西尔斯的负债一场的大，净负债是39亿美金，同时还有17.5亿美金的杨来劲缺口。西尔斯曾在今年的证监会要求文件中表示自己作为“持续经营企业”的担心。
Lampert’s ESL and Fairholme hold roughly $2 billion of Sears’ debt. If operations don’t turn around and they continue to fund the retailer, the timing of a potential bankruptcy filing could be delayed.
Lampert的ESL对冲金和Fairholme对冲基金持有了西尔斯20亿美金的债券，如果转型不顺利，他们可能会继续资助这个零售商，因此破产可能会被延迟。
Lampert and Berkowitz also control 85% of Sears’ equity. If Sears filed for bankruptcy via Chapter 11, seeking to reorganize, it could continue running some stores and make lease payments.
Lampert和Berkowitz（Fairholme的基金经理）共同持有了西尔斯85%的股份。如果西尔斯申请了破产保护，寻求重组，那么它可能会持续运营那些商铺，继续支付租金。
Seritage could generate $55 million in free cash flow this year, before paying an annual dividend of a dollar a share. Any loss of Sears’ payments would hurt in two ways: Seritage would lose both rental income from Sears and tenant reimbursements. Seritage has $64 million in annual interest expense on its $1.1 billion in debt and roughly $400 million left to spend on redevelopment projects. Its balance sheet, which looks sufficient to cover current needs, holds $140 million in cash and $280 million in untapped credit, including a term loan from ESL.
SRG今年产生了5500万美金的自由现金流（在支付每股1美金之前的自由现金流）。失去西尔斯的租金将会从2个方面伤害SRG：SRG将会损失租金收入和西尔斯的租客返还。SRG目前有6400万的利息成本，其负债水平是11亿美金，还有大概需要为现在的重建项目支付4亿美金。目前SRG的资产负债表似乎可以cover掉现有的需要，目前SRG持有1.4亿美金的现金和2.8美金的未使用贷款，其中有一个定期贷款来自于ESL（Lampert的对冲基金）。
If necessary, Seritage has options to raise capital. The REIT could sell its share of its joint-venture properties or its undeveloped properties.
如果需要，SRG有很多选择可以来融资。SRG可以通过出售联营地产项目的股份，或者未改造项目的股份。
Pabrai doesn’t think an equity raise is likely; he says Seritage will have no trouble lining up private capital. In addition to Lampert, he ticks off a list of potential investors that could include Berkshire Hathaway, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square, and Cascade Investment, Bill Gates’ investment vehicle.
Pabrai不认为SRG很快会有股权融资。他认为SRG不会有接受私人资本的问题。除了Lampert之外，Pabrai列举出来了一个潜在的投资者，包括伯克希尔哈撒韦、潘新广场、以及比尔盖茨的基金等。
He puts the maximum capital raise at $1 billion, followed by $1 billion over a few years for redevelopment projects. The big risk for current shareholders would be the extent of any potential dilution. That, too, could lower the long-term stock opportunity.
Pabrai认为SRG最多需要10美金来完成接下来几年的重建项目。对现有股东而言，最大的风险是潜在的喜事。这会降低股票长期的收益率。
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 annual letter offers clues as to what Buffett sees in Seritage. In the letter, Buffett discusses two real estate investments he made with his own funds in the 1980s and ’90s. One was a building in lower Manhattan near New York University in which he invested with partners in 1993, during a commercial real estate downturn. That building’s largest tenant occupied 20% of the space and was paying $5 per square foot. The other tenants were paying $70 per square foot.
在2013年伯克希尔哈撒韦的股东信中提供了巴菲特是如何分析SRG的线索。在这个股东信中，巴菲特介绍了他在1980和1990年做的两个房子产投资。其中一个是在纽约大学附近的一个商业地产，巴菲特是在1993年美国房地产低估时买入的这个地产。这个地产最大的租客占据了20%地产面积，并且每平方英尺只支付5美金的租金，其他租客则支付70美金的租金。
“The expiration of this bargain lease in nine years was certain to provide a major boost to earnings,” Buffett wrote. In time, as the old lease expired, earnings tripled.
巴菲特认为：“这个最大租客的优惠租赁合同将会在9年后到期，所以9年后这个地产的盈利能力大幅度上升。”在这个租客的租赁合同到期之后，这个商业地产的盈利能力翻了三倍。
MALL OWNERS have been suffering as retailers have closed up shop. Macy’s (M) andJ.C. Penney (JCP) have announced store closures, leaving other landlords to compete with Seritage for new tenants.
商业地产的持有者最近很痛苦，因为零售商关了很多店铺。梅西百货和JC Penney已经宣布关闭很多家店铺，这会导致有很多房东将会和SRG竞争新的租客。
Still, Seritage properties have been successful at attracting growing companies. Last year, fast-casual chain Shake Shack (SHAK) became a tenant.
即使如此，SRG的资产依旧吸引了很多成长型企业，去年Shake Shack也成为了它的租客。
For investors with a 10-year time horizon, owning Seritage could work out well. But the next two years will be critical. If Sears files for bankruptcy protection and Seritage shares drop, investors will be able to snap up a bargain. If a Sears filing doesn’t occur, Seritage’s stock could move higher in the near term—and post substantial gains thereafter.
对一个以10年为期限的投资者而言，SRG是个不错的选择。但是接下来两年很重要。如果西尔斯百货申请破产并且SRG的股票价格下跌，投资者可以等到很便宜的“折扣”价格。如果西尔斯没有破产，SRG的股票可以在短期内涨的很好，并且之后还会有不错的涨幅。